So long, farewell... but not quite Auf Wiedersehen or Adieu.
Today we'll hear from the IMF for the last time as they pack their bags and depart these shores at the end of the three-year bailout programme.
It's the end of the twelfth review of Ireland's progress, and though the payment window for our international aid has been extended until February, it's the last time that we'll have a formal inspection from the Troika on how we're doing and whether we're meeting our targets.
But to suggest that we're bringing the Troika to Terminal 2 and sending then onto a plane with a crumpled boarding pass and a Guinness hangover doesn't tell the full picture. Yes, the Troika are leaving... but the European Commission isn't going anywhere.
It's often overlooked but the Troika's entry to Ireland - and the terms and conditions of the subsequent Memorandum of Understanding between Ireland and its paylords - followed the negotiation of the national Stability Programme with the European Commission. That's the deal responsible for the 'Four Year Plan' - where the general framework of every Budget until 2014 - was originally mapped out.
That programme - and bear with me here, because this is where the terminology gets bonkers - is because Ireland is currently knees-deep in an 'Excessive Deficit Procedure' (EDP). In short, the gap between Ireland's income and its spending became so pronounced in 2008 and 2009 that the European Commission stepped in to take an overseeing role in how bad we were doing.
A slow process
The EU's rules dictate that this happens when the budget deficit (i.e. the gap between spending and income) exceeds 3% of the total size of Ireland's economy. Basically - under treaties Ireland has voted to accept - the Commission gets to hang around and have input into the Budget process until we get the deficit below 3% again. This year it'll clock in at around 7.5%; next year it should be about 4.8%, and all going well we'll make it to 3% in 2015.
But all of this means the Commission still gets a hands-on role in scrutinising the shape of Budget 2015 until we get back to the 3% mark. At current rates, that'll mean an eighth successive austerity budget with adjustments of around €2.5bn.
And it's not over there. That 3% rule I just mentioned? Those goalposts were moved last year.
The Fiscal Compact (approved in a referendum last year) essentially requires every member state to limit their deficit to just 0.5% of the size of their economy. Ireland will get a few years' grace but we'll have to fall into line with that total by 2018 or 2019 at the latest. That means another three years of belt-tightening after 2015 before we're aimed at the new goalposts.
And wait: that's not even the half of it.
Did you know you moved the goalposts?
Earlier this year the EU adopted the latest In a series of new rules on financial control, known as the 'two pack'. Its most potent symbol is the fact that the Budget is now announced in October, so that the European Commission has two months to scrutinise the figures.
Part of those rules dictate that countries emerging from an EU-IMF bailout have to open themselves to a little bit of extra scrutiny. In the EU's own words:
Until they have paid back a minimum of 75% of the assistance received, they will remain subject to new enhanced surveillance. This is to ensure a successful and durable return to the markets as well as fiscal sustainability, to the benefit of the individual Member State concerned as well as the euro area as a whole.
And this is the killer. If you go to the NTMA website you'll see a list of the loans we've got from the two European bailout funds so far. Noting the repayment date for each (and adding seven years to each of the EFSM repayment dates, because they haven't yet finalised the extention to the repayment period), this is the schedule we get for the EU side of things:
The line I've shaded in is the important one. If Ireland stopped borrowing from the EU this instant, and went back to the market of its own volition, it would take until September 2034 to repay the requisite 75%.
And even then, because of the other two-pack rules, the Budget will forever have to be sent to Brussels for its final sign-off before it can be put into action.
So we might be saying goodbye to the Troika today... but we'll be welcoming the European Commission for further scrutiny for another two decades at the very least.
Best not roll up the red carpet just yet.
